Towards Totometrics

(A Preliminary Statistical Analysis of Mug Punting)

Tuesday, 10 December 2002

Introduction

Despite the inroads of other forms of gambling, such as casinos and the pokies, horse racing still plays an important role in Australian cultural and leisure activities. The issue of racehorse performance is of keen interest to many Australians, however, despite the hours of study and analysis which have been devoted to the subject, punting remains by and large a mug's game with most of the economic benefits accruing to the totaliser operators. This is largely due to a lack of systematic scientific study, an omission which the new science of totometrics seeks to address. Totometrics aims to replace our current inadequate understanding of the "art" of race-course betting with a properly grounded scientific approach to the problem. This first study lays the groundwork by undertaking a quantitative statistical analysis of race-horse performance.

Methodology

A sample of typical races at a major Melbourne venue was analysed for correlation between pre-race TAB dividends and final placings of the horses run in each race. Pre-race tote dividends were obtained from the Victorian TAB and complete final race results from AAP. Final placings were plotted against pre-race dividends at 15 minutes before the race (-15 SP) and 1 minute (-1 SP) before the race for 5 selected races (the races included the final sample all had fields of between 7 and 10 runners after scratchings). Correlation coefficients were calculated over all runners in all races sampled.

Results and Conclusions

Correlation of -15 SP with finishing position: 0.533
Correlation of -1 SP with finishing position: 0.548

This shows a high degree of correlation between both -15 SP and -1 SP and the eventual placing of all runners. Removing a couple of obvious donkeys outliers revealed by the scatter diagrams (horses number 2 and 3 in race 5) gives the following correlations:

Correlation of -15 SP with finishing position: 0.626
Correlation of -1 SP with finishing position: 0.627

These correlations are very close to those which are claimed to demonstrate that national average IQ is the key determinant of a nation's GDP, confirming that -15 SP and -1 SP are strong predictors of a horse's race performance and that SP generally is the most likely determinant of a horse's final placing than nebulous, unquantifiable factors such as "form", "track conditions" or "who's on the take". Further research will be required to establish whether SP is genetically determined and to identify differences in SP between standard bred and thoroughbred horses.